As Bitcoin Gets Ready to Break $110K Again—This Isn’t the Top

Time to Hodl or Fold

Author

Kerry Lutz
May 27, 2025

May 26, 2025

As Bitcoin breaks through $109,000, investors are asking the same question they asked in 2017 and 2021: Is this another top? I called both of those previous peaks—not with hype, but with the help of Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model, which has guided my market timing for over a decade. Now, as I attend the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas, I’m watching sentiment carefully. But I’m not sounding the alarm—yet.

In speculative markets, major tops rarely arrive quietly. They tend to show up with full fanfare: high-profile conferences, euphoric media headlines, and a general feeling that everyone is about to get rich. That was the mood in December 2017, when Bitcoin peaked just shy of $20,000 a few weeks before the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami. It was déjà vu in April 2021, when Bitcoin hit $64,000 just before another major conference in the same city. These events didn’t cause the crashes—but they marked peak sentiment. Retail was all-in. Influencers were booming. And smart money was quietly walking out the door.

In both cases, I didn’t make my calls based on vibes. I studied capital flows, investor behavior, and Armstrong’s cycle model, which doesn’t care about hype—it tracks time, capital, and crowd psychology. That insight has shaped the way I see markets, and it’s the foundation of my latest book, The World According to Martin Armstrong(available now on Amazon).

So—is this another top? It doesn’t look like it, at least to this 12 year observer.

Bitcoin crossing $109,000 this week is impressive, but it’s not parabolic. Earlier this year, Bitcoin spent weeks consolidating under the $100K mark. Compare that to the previous cycle tops, where BTC surged 10x in a year. This time, it’s only up around 90% from its last major high. That’s strong—but not euphoric. More importantly, this run has been driven not by meme coins and retail hype, but by institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs, and a maturing financial infrastructure. In short: there’s no mania. Not yet.

That’s why I’m in Las Vegas—not just for the conference itself, but to take the temperature of the room. If I see Dogecoin millionaires, TikTok gurus making million-dollar calls, or media reverting to “Bitcoin can’t lose” narratives, I’ll be the first to start trimming. But if the tone stays focused on regulation, infrastructure, and long-term adoption, this could still be a mid-cycle checkpoint—not a peak.

The key is not watching the price—it’s watching the people. Market tops rarely happen when investors are cautious. They happen when everyone is all-in and utterly convinced they’re right. If the crowd starts frothing again, I’ll quietly take profits. But if it stays measured? I’ll stay in the game.

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight, but this rally feels different. It’s more disciplined. More mature. And—for now—still driven by something deeper than FOMO. I’ll keep monitoring from the ground in Vegas. If the energy shifts into mania, I’ll let you know. But until then?

I’m still holding.

PS: Want to understand how I’ve timed major financial turning points for over a decade? Grab my new book, The World According to Martin Armstrong. It’s part roadmap, part warning, and fully uncensored.

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