Fed Hike After a Long Pause? It’s Rare, but it Happens

November 23, 2023

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

It’s unusual for the Federal Reserve to hike again after a pause as long as the current one. Nonetheless it does happen, favoring the risk-reward for the next move to be for higher rates.

The Fed has been on hold since its meeting in July.

The market is now gunning for greater interest-rate cuts, with 90 bps priced by the end of next year.

This hiatus of about 18 weeks would be historically the most likely outcome for the length of the current pause in rates.