GDP Up 2%… Break Out the Champagne with Matthew Johnson

June 30, 2023

Matthew Johnson is back… The U.S. economy showed much stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter than previously thought. GDP increased at a 2% annualized pace for the January-through-March period, up from the previous estimate of 1.3%. The upward revision helps undercut widespread expectations that the U.S. is heading toward a recession but I am not so sure that is realistic if the Fed’s continue pushing rates higher. We all know inflation has finally hit 4% according to the CPI but consumer spending, as gauged by personal consumption expenditures, rose 4.2%, the highest quarterly pace since the second quarter of 2021 and Core PCE prices rose 4.9% which will only fuel the Fed’s resolve to continue pushing rates higher to continue contracting the economy. Interestingly we see that exports rose 7.8% after falling 3.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022 so demand seems to be healthy. Though I think many investors are wanting to be bullish, now is not the time to embrace the market with both hands. Remember that as we begin entering earnings season many of these companies get to set their own bar, therefore it has been easier for them to look good when in reality there is underlying weakness in their earnings. Be patient, focus on dividends (collect them or spend them) but be ready to buy as there’s likely to be more K-Mart Blue Light Specials coming.

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