Gold Market Will Turn When This Happens

June 26, 2023

by Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT The Daily Gold

I have written about the importance of a bear market, recession, and Fed shift for a Gold bull market. But today, I want to be more precise.

There has to be a potential tipping point that precedes these catalysts.

Markets anticipate the near future and slowly discount it as it becomes a probability and later a certainty.

In the chart below, we plot Gold, Gold against the stock market, the stock market, the 2-year yield, and the yield curve (10-year yield less the 2-year yield). The red line marks the final rate hike, while the blue line marks the first rate cut (in that cycle).

Focus on the Gold to S&P 500 ratio, stock market peaks (black arrows), and the yield curve.