Higher Unemployment Won’t Stop Wages From Rising

May 31, 2023

by Charles Hugh Smith Of Two Minds

The net result of these dynamics is official unemployment can soar but employers will still be scrambling to find qualified, willing employees.

The labor market is viewed as a sea of fluid workers. When one industry shrinks and lays off workers, it’s presumed the workers will find employment in an expanding sector. So laid-off construction workers will transition to insurance sales, become waiters, go back to school to train for jobs in the healthcare sector, and so on.

It’s also presumed that young workers will automatically be hired and trained in whatever sectors are expanding. The fresh clay of high school / college graduates will be molded into whatever workers employers need.