Inflationary Expectations Do Not Cause Inflation

November 30, 2023

by Frank Shostak Mises.org

Many economists believe that inflationary expectations cause general increases in prices. For instance, if there is a sharp increase in oil prices, people will form higher inflationary expectations that set in motion general increases in the prices of other goods and services. According to the former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, “Undoubtedly, the state of inflation expectations greatly influences actual inflation and thus the central bank’s ability to achieve price stability.”

Economists believe that if expectations could be made less responsive to various shocks, then over time this would mitigate the effects of these shocks on the momentum of the prices of goods and services. Many economic commentators think that central bank policies can bring inflationary expectations to a state of equilibrium in which expectations will be anchored or not sensitive to changes in economic data.