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  • July Payrolls Miss Expectations at 187k, Follow Big Downward Revisions, but Unemployment Rate Drops and Earnings Come in Hot

July Payrolls Miss Expectations at 187k, Follow Big Downward Revisions, but Unemployment Rate Drops and Earnings Come in Hot

Today’s jobs report was a tale of two opposites: on one hand, the monthly payrolls change for July missed expectations of 200K (and certainly the whisper number of 222K) printing at 187K, which would have been down from 200K and the lowest since Dec 2020… if only June wasn’t revised sharply lower to 185K (more on that below).

Today’s report was the second consecutive miss in a row for a series that until June had enjoyed 14 straight beats. You add in the 49,000 downward revision in payrolls for the previous two months, and the direction of travel here is clear: The labor market is softening.