“Leading Economic Index” Predicts Recession for Early 2024, After Having Predicted a Recession for Late 2022, Early 2023, Mid-2023, and Late 2023

by Wolf Richter Wolf Street

And there’s Still No Recession!

Every month, the Conference Board publishes its “Leading Economic Index” (LEI), which is a leading indicator for turning points in the business cycle and is designed to predict business-cycle recessions. It predicted the 2001 recession and the Great Recession. It didn’t predict the pandemic recession because that wasn’t a business-cycle recession but a pandemic with a lockdown that suddenly shut parts of the economy down; instead of predicting it, it reacted simultaneously with it, which is how it should have reacted. So its track record is good.

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