Under Multiple Budget Scenarios, the Government’s Numbers Still Don’t Add Up

July 27, 2023

Balanced federal budgets aren’t even considered as a possibility.

by J.D. Tuccille Reason.com

If you’re a glutton for punishment, you might be a follower of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) depressing analyses of the federal government’s fiscal prospects based on tax and spending trends. The term “unsustainable” features frequently, though “fiscal crisis” seems to have recently gained popularity. But circumstances and choices affect outcomes, so the CBO recently peered into its crystal ball based on scenarios that vary from official assumptions about economic conditions and policy choices. The results vary widely, but all examined paths lead to a future of growing debt and a hobbled economy.

For starters, it’s worth knowing the CBO’s formal projections, as published last month in the 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook. Reason’s Eric Boehm summarized the findings at the time: “The federal government is on pace to borrow $116 trillion over the next 30 years, and merely paying the interest costs on the accumulated national debt will require a staggering 35 percent of annual federal revenue by the end of that time frame.”