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- Utter Chaos at the Short End of the Treasury Market and at the 28-Day Treasury Bill Auction: A Deep Dive
Utter Chaos at the Short End of the Treasury Market and at the 28-Day Treasury Bill Auction: A Deep Dive
by Wolf Richter Wolf Street
Investors exacting their pound of flesh for the risk of a default “as early as” June 1.
The chaos has been going on for weeks. And then it got funny at the Treasury auction on Thursday. Back on April 20, I marveled that the totally crazy 164-basis-point spread between the one-month and two-month Treasury yields: the one-month yield collapsed to 3.4% in just days (from 4.8%), while the two-month yield was just fine, ticking up past 5%. A plunging yield means that the price is surging amid huge demand. Investors were piling into a safe asset that will give them their money back in about a month, before June. What might happen in June? The US might default. That was the calculus back then.