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Where’s the Darn Recession?
by James Rickards Daily Reckoning
Analyzing today’s economic conditions is a challenge.
If the world is in good economic health, you can describe the policy reasons behind that condition and identify specific stocks and sectors that will outperform the market.
You’d point to trends such as low inflation, positive real interest rates (a sign of strong growth resulting from a healthy competition for funds) and stable exchange rates (indicating that investment decisions are made on the basis of fundamentals rather than speculation).
If the world is in poor economic health, the analytic process is much the same but with very different inputs and forecasts.